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Toby Crabel – Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout

Crabel, Toby – Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout.pdf
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Description

If you dont know what this is it is probobly of no use to you. This is the infamous Crabel book, still selling for like 400 bucks on amazon.

4.5 star avg on amazon – http://www.amazon.com/Day-Trading-Short-Term-Price-Patterns-…

heres 2 reviews.

Crabel manages $2 Billion for a reason

The book is basically a series of studies on reoccuring patterns in the stock and commodities markets. Crabel found that volatility is mean-reverting in the speculative markets. Just as night follows day, volatile markets follow quiet markets. There are more than a dozen robust volatility patterns evaluated and explained. The only real weakness I can see is that Crabel used point values instead of percentage values. This was a common mistake of professionals back in the early 1990’s. You will need to convert these. For example, if the S&P 500 is currently meeting the criteria for one of the low-volatility “set ups” then place a buy stop 2.5 points above the open and a sell stop 2.5 points below the open. If filled set your mechanical stop-loss 1.5 points outside the current days existing range.

Well, 2.5 points was a reasonable move back in 1991 (when the S&P was trading around 400). But 2.5 points is just noise today. To adjust simply divide 2.5 points by what-ever the S&P was trading at back in 1991 to get a percentage. Then multiply this percentage by today’s S&P level (around 1000). This will result is something like 6.2 points. Do the same thing for your stop-loss as well.

Crabel’s logic was/is sound but the research in the book should have been based on percentage moves. These are what have held reasonably stable over time.

Also, to be successful you will need to be able to track at least 75-100 stocks. Otherwise you will not get enough set-ups to maintain proper diversification. Volatile, liquid stocks obviously work best. A program like Neovest or Radarscreen (Tradestation) will be very helpful.

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At first glance this may seem like any other trading book however I can assure you after much exhaustive computer analysis there is much more here than meets the eye. What many people do not know is that the exact methods which Toby Crabel uses for managing billions of dollars are disclosed within this book. I have in my possession due diligence documents which state his exact trading methodology and markets. I have pursued and collected almost everything that is available on the subject of Toby Crabel and his career. This book deserves a very slow in-depth and at sometimes painful read through over and over and over again! Of course it helps to be a computer guru so that you can make complete sense of all the patterns and become confident in them.

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